Based on what’s happening this very moment, I would say it’s impossible to really be sure which way the November election is going to go.
The current poll numbers don’t look good for Trump. They look downright abysmal on a national scale, but actually look better in swing states now than they did four years ago. Joe Biden has some trouble where the protests in our cities are concerned, and it looks like those ultra-progressive activists are going to end up doing more harm than good.
Still, bad interviews like the one he had on Monday evening show that Trump is as scatterbrained as ever and, despite a good speech at the Republican National Convention, he still seems to have no sense of direction when it comes to messaging.
But the difference between a Biden victory and a Trump victory is less about who is more likely to pick up the middle of the road voters and more about who is more likely to scare them off. Both candidates have a clear base of supporters who are willing to support them. They both have a clear segment of voters who will vote for them in order to keep the other guy from winning. What is unknown is who will pick up the voters that are scared to death of both sides and need to find the lesser of two evils.
Despite what some pundits may tell you, neither side really has a chance to expand their base. At this point, it’s pretty much locked in that the bases are going to vote. Both parties are highly motivated. The problem is that people who aren’t a part of either side’s base have a hell of a choice in front of them, and right now I get the sense that they will stick with Trump rather than flip to Biden.
